A day of dancing Ps

8 03 2016

I got sent this link by Mike today: “Dance of the P Values”;

And this text arrived from Maria as about the same time:

Screen Shot 2016-03-08 at 6.22.13 PM

What’s with all these dancing Ps?

Mike‘s writing a chapter for his thesis on estimating power to guide choices of sample sizes …(to help make animal use in research more sensible). This has led him through a maze of literature, some old, some new, on base rate effects, the dubious nature of P values, and many other deeply unsettling topics.

Meanwhile Maria was helping me name a particular fallacy. On Friday, I was vainly trying to remember what it’s called when you mistake evidence consistent with an idea (but also consistent with many other ideas) as proof of that one idea (ignoring all the possible alternatives). It’s “affirming the consequent”!! Yes!!  (“If p then q; q therefore p”.)

All nerdily very pleasing, and the ‘dance’ video is really excellent.

Screen Shot 2016-03-08 at 5.45.12 PM